What is the empty pole?

The empty pole is the point in a race where a horse runs out of fuel and stops making progress. Find it in his past performances and you can ask the only question that matters: does today's wire arrive before it or after it.

What is pace shape and why does it matter?

Pace shape is how much early speed a field holds and what that does to the race. One front runner alone on the lead dictates soft fractions and never gives the closers a target. Four horses who all want the same ground cut each other's throats and leave the race to whoever is last off the bridle. The same horse with the same figures is a standout in one race and a throw-out in the other, so the tool names the shape and adjusts every runner for how well it suits him.

What do E, EP, P and S mean?

They are running styles. E needs the lead. EP presses the pace and holds. P stalks in mid pack. S comes from behind. Styles are assigned by where a horse sits inside the field's actual pace range rather than by standard scores, because when every horse in a race is fast, none of them scores as fast.

Bounce risk is the regression that often follows a career top effort. When a horse's last figure is both a lifetime best and well clear of his average, the tool flags it and discounts that figure rather than treating it as his new baseline.

How is fair odds calculated?

Every runner gets a model score from speed figures, pace figures, class rating, connections, post position, pace shape and form cycle. Scores become win probabilities that sum to one across the live field, and fair odds are the price those probabilities imply. Expected value per dollar compares that price with the odds you type in.

Does it cost anything or need an account?

No. The Empty Pole is free, runs entirely in your browser, and nothing leaves your machine. There is no account and no upload.

THE EMPTY POLE

MONMOUTH PARK · FRIDAY, JULY 24, 2026

speed / pace / class11 figures imputed

01LOAD A CARD

Drop a Speed Figure Analysis PDF hereEquibase Speed Figure Analysis — the page with Pgm / Post / Class Rating / Pace / E figures / Jockey / Trainer.
Everything it reads stays editable below. Nothing is trusted until you have looked at it.

02THE CARD

Race 1 — 5 Furlongs

Purse $15,000 Field 9 Race rating 61 Top figure 62 Post 2:00 PM

TURF (LENNOX) · Maiden Claiming $16,000-$14,000 · fillies & mares 3yo up

PACE SHAPEMELTDOWNpressure 4.0

Too much speed signed up for the same job. They cook each other and the race falls to whoever is last off the bridle. Helped: Hurry Up Hailey, Caitlin Said Run, April Spun. Hurt: Ausplexity, Midnite Bust R Out, Natures Fury.

SORTEQUIBASE MUTUEL RATING 4-9-2-8

HORSE

PACE & SPEED

WIN% / FAIR

COMP

ODDS

EV / $1

April Spun

Cotto Jr P 39% · O'Connell K 42%

STALKSSETUP SUITS HIMIMPROVINGTOP CEILINGOUTCLASSED

PACE70

SPEED100

class 55 · pace 56/82 · fig 57/62 · post 4 (17%)

52.7%

fair 0.9-1

model 52.7%

+31.2 vs mkt

100

+58

ML 9-5

+0.48

VALUE

Ausplexity

Iorio M 33% · Pompay T 39%

NEEDS THE LEADBURNS UP IN THE DUELIMPROVINGOUTCLASSED

PACE100

SPEED100

class 55 · pace 89/100 · fig 57/61 · post 2 (29%)

41.6%

fair 1.4-1

model 41.6%

+24.5 vs mkt

+54

ML 5-2

+0.46

VALUE

Natures Fury

Adorno A 47% · Servis J 44%

NEEDS THE LEADBURNS UP IN THE DUELIMPROVINGOUTCLASSED

PACE70

SPEED61

class 36 · pace 52/84 · fig 35/61 · post 9 (0%)

3.5%

fair 28-1

model 3.5%

-16.5 vs mkt

+17

ML 2-1

-0.90

SHORT

False Witness

Marquez C 30% · Deiter K 34%

PRESSES AND HOLDSOUTCLASSED

PACE65

SPEED58

class 33 · pace 55/62 · fig 33/34 · post 7 (25%)

0.6%

fair 165-1

model 0.6%

-6.1 vs mkt

-9

ML 8-1

-0.95

SHORT

Infamy

Rojas C 28% · Delgado J 49%

FIRST-TIME STARTERSETUP SUITS HIMOUTCLASSED

PACE55

SPEED58

class 33 · pace 46/53 · fig 33/34 · post 8 (9%)

0.6%

fair 179-1

model 0.6%

-12.8 vs mkt

-10

ML 7-2

-0.97

SHORT

Caitlin Said Run

Morales A 27% · Grullon R 5%

STALKSSETUP SUITS HIMIMPROVINGOUTCLASSED

PACE56

SPEED58

class 33 · pace 47/53 · fig 33/54 · post 1 (6%)

0.5%

fair 218-1

model 0.5%

-6.2 vs mkt

-13

ML 8-1

-0.96

SHORT

Munchkin

Sutherland C 37% · Harris H 24%

PRESSES AND HOLDSOUTCLASSED

PACE70

SPEED72

class 39 · pace 52/84 · fig 41/52 · post 5 (11%)

0.5%

fair 220-1

model 0.5%

-5.0 vs mkt

-13

ML 10-1

-0.95

SHORT

Hurry Up Hailey

Gomez J 26% · McBurney P 42%

PARTIAL FIGURESSETUP SUITS HIMOUTCLASSED

PACE2

SPEED58

class 33 · pace 2/2 · fig 33/34 · post 6 (17%)

0.1%

fair 1109-1

model 0.1%

-3.7 vs mkt

-38

ML 15-1

-0.99

SHORT

Midnite Bust R Out

Ferrer J 35% · Rabadan S 31%

NEEDS THE LEADBURNS UP IN THE DUELOUTCLASSED

PACE69

SPEED37

class 21 · pace 46/78 · fig 21/31 · post 3 (10%)

0.1%

fair 1488-1

model 0.1%

-5.4 vs mkt

-42

ML 10-1

-0.99

SHORT

Heuristic, not a probability engine. Figures come from the Equibase Speed Figure Analysis: class rating, last / average-last-3 / lifetime-best pace and speed figures, post-position win rate, and jockey / trainer strike rates.